Determinants of Belief in the Biological Inevitability of War: An Empirical Analysis of Ethological, Anthropological, and Media Influences

Abstract

The belief that warfare is an inescapable part of human nature remains a contentious societal issue with significant implications for policy and peacebuilding. This study moves beyond theoretical debate to empirically investigate the factors predicting individuals' belief in the biological inevitability of war (BBIW). Employing a cross-sectional survey design with a sample of 512 adults in Finland, this research examines the relative influence of arguments derived from ethology, anthropology, classic aggressive drive theory, and media framing. Hierarchical multiple regression analysis revealed that agreement with ethological arguments emphasizing primate violence was the strongest predictor of BBIW, followed by agreement with aggressive drive concepts and exposure to media framing of conflict as ubiquitous. Conversely, agreement with anthropological arguments highlighting cultural variability and peaceful societies was a significant negative predictor. The model explained a substantial portion of the variance in BBIW, demonstrating that specific scientific and media narratives are powerful determinants of public opinion on this fundamental question.