Employing Data Mining Techniques in Testing the Effectiveness of Modernization Theory

Abstract

This interdisciplinary study is concerned with testing the effectiveness of Modernization Theory in explaining regime change by means of data mining techniques. Modernization Theory, which links democratization with economic development (improvements in income, urbanization, industrialization, education and communication levels), has been criticized widely. Many criticisms posited that there is not a significant relation between economic development and democratization. This study is an attempt to test whether the theory has improved its effectiveness with the advent of the Internet and mobile phone technologies. To this end, first, the variables are introduced. Then, the study makes an analysis by using data mining techniques. It first tests the correlation between democratization and improvements in income, education, urbanization and communication levels within the period between 1976 and 1995. Then it adds the new variables, the Internet and mobile phone usage, and tests the correlation between democratization and this new range of variables for 1996-2015 period. In the conclusion, the study evaluates whether the effectiveness of Modernization Theory is improved when the Internet and mobile phone usage are added as the new variables. It is found that there is not a strong relation between income per capita and democratization as some critics of the Modernization Theory suggest, but other factors emphasized by this theory like improvements in education and communication have a more decisive effect. Moreover, among our new variables, Internet usage proved to be a really important variable conducive to democratization according to test results.